Greetings!
Major weeks can be difficult for us as fans. You don’t want to go too hard too early. If you watch 11 hours of coverage on Monday, including three reruns of Live From, you’re going to be cooked by Friday afternoon. Like the agronomists who manage the golf course, it has to be a slow and steady build until you’re just immersed in the thing on Saturday and Sunday.
My experience this year has been maybe a bit too slow. However, I spent the morning on Tuesday researching things like “crazy 7th green at Shinnecock in 2004” on YouTube, and buddy, let me tell you, that sucked me all the way in to this year’s U.S. Open and convinced me that all U.S. Opens should only be played at either Shinnecock or Pinehurst. Get back to me at the end of the week to see if that still stands.
Today: 10 predictions for how this week’s tournament is going to play out.
Name drops: ZJ, Brooks, Akshay, all the Fitpatricks and of course … The Mink.
But first, I have one prediction that should be pretty easy to nail, barring some sort of coffee or TSA incident: I will be wearing Holderness and Bourne to the golf course every day this week. We just got received a new drop with Norman all over the best stuff H&B makes, and I brought everything with me to Shinnecock.
And while the wind will likely (hopefully!) howl off the Atlantic at Shinnecock this week, you know those H&B collars won’t going anywhere.
You should check out their excellent U.S. open collection right here.
Or you can comment right here on Twitter with whatever obscure storyline most excites you for this 126th U.S. Open and be entered to win a little U.S. Open gear giveaway from them, which we’ll announce on Wednesday afternoon.
Thank you to them for being a supporter of our work and now let’s get to the news predictions.
I talked about a few of these on the Normal Sport Show on Tuesday, which you can listen to (Apple | Spotify) or watch on YouTube right here. Hayden Martin and I had a blast chopping it up about the CWS and what we’re expecting at Shinnecock.
Here are the rest of those predix.
1. The top three players in the world — according to Data Golf, not the Crooked OWGR — will finish in inverse order. I have Rahm first, Rory second and Scottie third. This is mostly a Rahm take but partially a Scottie take, too.
Data Golf had a good bit on him earlier this week about how he’s fallen off his probably unsustainable pace of a year ago. And though he’s still (easily) the best player in the world, there are some cracks where you don’t really want to see them, namely in the approach play, which will be paramount this week.
Scottie has also been most frustrated most often by both of the Opens, and I can see that popping up again this week.
Rahm, on the other hand, seems to be ascending. He was awesome at Aronimink despite a sketchy start and has been astounding at U.S. Opens since, well, missing the cut at Shinnecock in 2018.
He’s also having (by far) the best approach play year he’s had since going to LIV in 2024. And if Aronimink was any indication, I think he probably feels a bit of freedom with LIV slowly fading into the past. Rahm will either win or come extremely close to it this weekend at Shinnecock.
[Jason's prediction] This week, hat's will replaced by temporary tattoos.
2. Brooks will miss the cut. I don’t trust his hand injury. I don’t really trust him at majors anymore, and I don’t think he’ll ever win another one.
By the way, this is how careers normally go. Most of the guys who won 5+ majors did so in tiny windows. Rory and Phil are very much the outliers here.
Palmer: 1958-1964
Watson: 1975-1983
Hogan: 1946-1953
Brooks: 2017-2023 fits better into this than 2017-2026 would.
Part of the reason I believe all of this is because I think his body has understandably broken down a bit as he’s gotten older. Part of it is because the psychological advantage he once held over the field has evaporated. He’s a good player, maybe even a great one. But the “oh crap, Brooks is within two” days just don’t hit like they used to for these fields. I think to say they still do is to be a bit delusional about the present reality (which, by the way, looks like this).
3. The USGA will water the golf course during play this week. Yes, really.
They basically said as much. This is from the excellent Geoff Shackelford newsletter.
It all depends on the weather, of course, but if we have to, I think we’ve actually got a little bit more of a window between our morning and afternoon wave tee times, so if we need to go out and put a little bit of water on the greens, because that was the issue in 2018. It’s really just keep the leaf blade of the Poa Annua hydrated.
I’d rather not do that, but we’ll do it if the weather dictates it, and we’re going to tell the players that. The subsurface isn’t impacted. It’s just what’s on top. And a lot of the guys probably don’t buy it, but Shinnecock is so different than anywhere else I’ve ever been.
John Bodenhamer
Keep the leaf blade of the poa annua hydrated.
This is … reasonable (?), but players will lose it. I don’t know if we’ll quite get to Defcon ZJ and be gifted another meme for the ages, but I suspect we’ll get something in that ballpark if and when this happens.
Here’s the U.S. Open pool by the way. Unfortunately it is not available to folks outside the United States because of the way international gambling laws work. Apologies for that!
4. This will be Patrick Cantlay’s best chance to win a major championship. That’s not saying a ton given that he has five top 10 finishes in his career and only had real chances at probably the 2019 Masters and the 2024 U.S. Open at Pinehurst.
However, there are two reasons I think he’s going to pop this week. The first is that in 2018, approach play contributed to 40 percent of the scoring variance (which is really high), and Cantlay is an incredible iron player. He’s been 20th in the world over the last six months and 12th over the last three.
The second is lag putting. Again, here are our friends at DG.
On the greens, Shinnecock’s difficulty in 2018 was most pronounced on lag putts. It sits 5th on our most-difficult list, behind several years at Augusta National and the U.S. Open at Winged Foot.
Data Golf
Cantlay ranks No. 5 in approach putting on the PGA Tour this year. Somehow (I’m not sure how), Jordan Spieth ranks 2nd.
I’m not saying Cantlay is going to win. I don’t actually think that. What I am saying is that we forget about how good Cantlay is — rightfully so given his major record — and that this could be a major he walks away from thinking he kicked away his best opportunity ever to win one of the four big ones.
Aside: Is Patrick Cantlay the best player of all time who has never truly had a chance to win a major championship (depending on how you feel about the 2024 U.S. Open when he was two back with four to go)?
5. The winning score will be under par. The average winning score at Shinnecock in four modern U.S. Opens has been 1 under. Throw in the fact that equipment has gotten better over the last eight years, the fairways were widened since 2018 and the USGA’s conservative approach to setups since Chambers Bay (I read this piece before every U.S. Open now), and I don’t see how the winning score is not under par unless the wind blows at Cat 5 levels for four straight days.
6. Alex will win low Fitz. I say this with almost no conviction, but I do think Alex has a great chance to beat out Matty this week. Also, I might just be saying it as an excuse to post the normal moment of the week thus far. One member of our Slack noted that Bryson will lobbying to make this legal by the end of the week.
7. Jackson Koivun will toy with the lead on the weekend. You know what we don’t have right now? A super young, exciting American golfer who can contend to win major championships. Do the mental exercise. Run through all the under-25 Americans who could win a major, and see who you come up with. The list is …
Chris Gotterup?
Akshay Bhatia??
and ???
Is that it? That’s it, right? (I’m probably forgetting someone, please remind me of who).
The turning point for all of this was Whistling Straits. That young American team dominated a group of European Olds, and the expectation was that America was going to be young and great at both team events but also individually.
Except … Europe turned over several great Youngs, and the U.S. did not (unless we’re counting Cameron, who is 29 years old).
Koivun is a tremendous player. Data Golf has him at No. 48 in the world before he’s even hit a golf shot as a professional, and that’s not hyperbole. If anything, it might be underrating him. I think he wriggles out of the first two rounds and starts galloping a bit this weekend. This will be intoxicating and thus set the stage for all of us to completely overstate how good he’s going to be and immediately give him 4-6 major wins in his career.
But hey, I’ll take all of that hyperbole just to have a young American star to root for.
8. We will hit a score variance of 25 on one of the first two days. Heck, we got a variance of 18 on the weekend last time a U.S. Open was played here, mostly due to the wind. Berger and Finau shot 66 early while the leaders had to deal with conditions late. That was the day Phil hit the moving putt (I forgot how unhinged that whole thing was). Rickie shot 84 that day.
With the amateurs still in it on Thursday and Friday and the potential for insane winds one of those two days for one of the waves, I do think we could see something like 65-90, which would be incredible.
Also, I discovered this in my research. Tommy Fleetwood did not shoot a score between 67-74 last time he played here but finished second. That cannot have happened at any other major championship for a top two finisher.
9. Russ Henley, top five finisher. How good has Henley been at U.S. Opens in the last three years? How about these numbers … (min. all 12 rounds played)
I am at the point where I would love to see Russ or Sam Burns — guys who have flirted with major championship leads but rarely flirted with the actual trophy — win this tournament. I like those two guys specifically for different reasons, but for Henley it would be sweet to be able to say that yeah you can be nearly 40 and have 167 ball speed but still win freaking Shinnecock.
And it might be the year of the old. Major winners in their 30s (or 40s or 50s) by year …
2026: 2/2
2025: 2/4
2024: 3/4 (Bryson and Xander were both 30)
2023: 2/4
2022: 0/4
2021: 1/4
10. Ludvig will ball out. I almost picked him to win on the pod today and I may pick him in this newsletter on Wednesday (as a hedge of course).
I reject the idea that Ludvig has a closing problem. As someone (I have no idea who or I would reference it) pointed out, we thought the same things about Xander in 2024 [raises hand], and he won the next two majors.
He cruised around Pinehurst and should have won Aronimink, too. Putting comes and goes, and while I don’t think Ludvig is necessarily a great putter, he is top 15 approach putting this year, the same state I cited for Cantlay above. I would be surprised if he finished outside the top 10 this week.
Hokas on the ground starting tomorrow.
Thank you for reading and participating in all of this. We are grateful you’re here and glad for your support. Make sure you join our U.S. Open pool!
Greetings!
Major weeks can be difficult for us as fans. You don’t want to go too hard too early. If you watch 11 hours of coverage on Monday, including three reruns of Live From, you’re going to be cooked by Friday afternoon. Like the agronomists who manage the golf course, it has to be a slow and steady build until you’re just immersed in the thing on Saturday and Sunday.
My experience this year has been maybe a bit too slow. However, I spent the morning on Tuesday researching things like “crazy 7th green at Shinnecock in 2004” on YouTube, and buddy, let me tell you, that sucked me all the way in to this year’s U.S. Open and convinced me that all U.S. Opens should only be played at either Shinnecock or Pinehurst. Get back to me at the end of the week to see if that still stands.
Today: 10 predictions for how this week’s tournament is going to play out.
Name drops: ZJ, Brooks, Akshay, all the Fitpatricks and of course … The Mink.
But first, I have one prediction that should be pretty easy to nail, barring some sort of coffee or TSA incident: I will be wearing Holderness and Bourne to the golf course every day this week. We just got received a new drop with Norman all over the best stuff H&B makes, and I brought everything with me to Shinnecock.
And while the wind will likely (hopefully!) howl off the Atlantic at Shinnecock this week, you know those H&B collars won’t going anywhere.
You should check out their excellent U.S. open collection right here.
Or you can comment right here on Twitter with whatever obscure storyline most excites you for this 126th U.S. Open and be entered to win a little U.S. Open gear giveaway from them, which we’ll announce on Wednesday afternoon.
Thank you to them for being a supporter of our work and now let’s get to the news predictions.
I talked about a few of these on the Normal Sport Show on Tuesday, which you can listen to (Apple | Spotify) or watch on YouTube right here. Hayden Martin and I had a blast chopping it up about the CWS and what we’re expecting at Shinnecock.
Here are the rest of those predix.
1. The top three players in the world — according to Data Golf, not the Crooked OWGR — will finish in inverse order. I have Rahm first, Rory second and Scottie third. This is mostly a Rahm take but partially a Scottie take, too.
Data Golf had a good bit on him earlier this week about how he’s fallen off his probably unsustainable pace of a year ago. And though he’s still (easily) the best player in the world, there are some cracks where you don’t really want to see them, namely in the approach play, which will be paramount this week.
Scottie has also been most frustrated most often by both of the Opens, and I can see that popping up again this week.
Rahm, on the other hand, seems to be ascending. He was awesome at Aronimink despite a sketchy start and has been astounding at U.S. Opens since, well, missing the cut at Shinnecock in 2018.
He’s also having (by far) the best approach play year he’s had since going to LIV in 2024. And if Aronimink was any indication, I think he probably feels a bit of freedom with LIV slowly fading into the past. Rahm will either win or come extremely close to it this weekend at Shinnecock.
[Jason's prediction] This week, hat's will replaced by temporary tattoos.
2. Brooks will miss the cut. I don’t trust his hand injury. I don’t really trust him at majors anymore, and I don’t think he’ll ever win another one.
By the way, this is how careers normally go. Most of the guys who won 5+ majors did so in tiny windows. Rory and Phil are very much the outliers here.
Palmer: 1958-1964
Watson: 1975-1983
Hogan: 1946-1953
Brooks: 2017-2023 fits better into this than 2017-2026 would.
Part of the reason I believe all of this is because I think his body has understandably broken down a bit as he’s gotten older. Part of it is because the psychological advantage he once held over the field has evaporated. He’s a good player, maybe even a great one. But the “oh crap, Brooks is within two” days just don’t hit like they used to for these fields. I think to say they still do is to be a bit delusional about the present reality (which, by the way, looks like this).
3. The USGA will water the golf course during play this week. Yes, really.
They basically said as much. This is from the excellent Geoff Shackelford newsletter.
It all depends on the weather, of course, but if we have to, I think we’ve actually got a little bit more of a window between our morning and afternoon wave tee times, so if we need to go out and put a little bit of water on the greens, because that was the issue in 2018. It’s really just keep the leaf blade of the Poa Annua hydrated.
I’d rather not do that, but we’ll do it if the weather dictates it, and we’re going to tell the players that. The subsurface isn’t impacted. It’s just what’s on top. And a lot of the guys probably don’t buy it, but Shinnecock is so different than anywhere else I’ve ever been.
John Bodenhamer
Keep the leaf blade of the poa annua hydrated.
This is … reasonable (?), but players will lose it. I don’t know if we’ll quite get to Defcon ZJ and be gifted another meme for the ages, but I suspect we’ll get something in that ballpark if and when this happens.
This post will continue below for Normal Club members (all 1,057 of them) and includes why I’m big on Jackson Koivun, Patrick Cantlay and … Russell Henley (?) this week as well as some thoughts on what the winning score could be.
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